{
  "question_id": "W121",
  "slug": "pla-lands-on-taiwan",
  "title": "PLA forces land on Taiwan",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W121",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W121",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0582
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0909
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2569
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W121",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "YES requires an actual PLA operational landing (in practice an invasion, raid, or occupation) on Taiwan's main island plus an official Taiwan central-government or US federal-executive statement naming the main island or a location on it; outlying-island seizures, blockade/quarantine, strikes, and unattributed/civilian landings are treated as NO.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0628
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1247
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W121",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "A Chinese military landing on Taiwan's main island would mean an unprecedented war, and there is no sign of preparation now. American officials judge an invasion before 2028 increasingly unlikely, China's top generals were just purged, and Beijing is courting Taiwan's opposition ahead of the January 2028 election. Risk rises afterwards, giving roughly a one-in-ten chance by end-2031. What would most raise this forecast: Taiwan's ruling party winning re-election, followed by visible Chinese military mobilization.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W121",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "A Chinese military landing on Taiwan's main island in the next five years is possible but unlikely. China's top military leadership has been gutted by purges, and US intelligence judges an invasion before 2028 unlikely. Beijing is currently courting Washington and Taiwan's opposition party rather than preparing for war. Risk rises after 2028, especially if Taiwan's ruling party wins re-election in January 2028. Visible invasion preparations or a Chinese blockade would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0779
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}