{
  "question_id": "W257",
  "slug": "pisa-reading-below-445",
  "title": "The OECD's average PISA reading score falls below 445",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W257",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.356489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.588153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.608745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.618527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.622341
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W257",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.326526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.575711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.586318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.59666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.606744
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W257",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only PISA 2029 (or later) main-assessment results can qualify since PISA 2025 data collection ended before the 2026-09-16 opening date; the headline 'OECD average' is taken to include any new members invited before the release, as OECD did for Colombia in PISA 2018.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W257",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of YES at about 39% by the end of 2031. The latest test (2025, out September 2026) put the OECD's average reading score at a record-low 461, and it doesn't count. Only the 2029 test, with results planned for September 2030, can settle this. It needs a further drop of about 12 to 16 points, depending on how many lower-scoring countries join the OECD first. Clear signs that the decline is slowing or reversing would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.37
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.39
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W257",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only the next international reading test, taken in 2029 with results due in 2030, can settle this. The OECD average fell to 461 in the 2025 test. Getting below 445 needs another 16-point drop. Recent falls of 14 points in three years, plus likely new lower-scoring members (Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, perhaps others), make this close to a coin flip. Clear evidence that younger teenagers' reading has stopped declining would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.438
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}