{
  "question_id": "W225",
  "slug": "philippine-bpo-headcount-down-25-percent",
  "title": "Philippine outsourcing employment falls 25%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W225",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.27943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.30249
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W225",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17705
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.24427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33435
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W225",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Philippine outsourcing association still projects job growth: about 1.94 million workers in 2026 and 1.99 million in 2027. Even its worst case for 2028 is 1.85 million. The industry has not had a single down year since at least 2016. Falling to 1.425 million would mean a collapse of about 27% within a few years, which could only happen if AI replaces offshore customer service very quickly. The thing most likely to change this forecast is an actual drop in the 2027 or 2028 figures.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0575
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0894
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W225",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Philippine outsourcing industry is still adding jobs. Its trade group expects about 1.94 million workers in 2026 and 1.99 million in 2027, and even its worst case for 2028 is 1.85 million. Reaching 1,425,000 or fewer would take a collapse of more than a quarter within about four years, which this industry group has never reported. My forecast rises to about 5% by the end of 2031. What would most change it is the industry's annual figures turning sharply negative by 2028.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0519
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}