{
  "question_id": "W131",
  "slug": "pentagon-takes-10-million-unmanned-systems",
  "title": "The Pentagon takes delivery of 10 million unmanned systems in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W131",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
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          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086544
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.110294
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.161763
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W131",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003196
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013134
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016588
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149667
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W131",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Requires an eligible DoD publication stating ≥10,000,000 unmanned vehicles actually delivered/accepted within one identified US fiscal year; orders, budgeted/planned quantities, cumulative or calendar-year totals do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W131",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The US military now receives tens of thousands to perhaps a couple hundred thousand drones a year. Its boldest public goals are about one million over several years. Ten million in one fiscal year by 2031 would need more than a fiftyfold scale-up plus an official count for that year, so I estimate about 2%. What would most change this is a major war, especially with China, that triggered wartime mass production.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W131",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 3% by the end of 2031. The US military takes delivery of tens of thousands to a few hundred thousand small drones a year, and even the Pentagon's boldest public goals say \"millions\" in coming years, not 10 million in one year. Reaching that would take wartime-scale production plus an official report counting deliveries for a single fiscal year. A major war, for example with China, that forced mass drone production would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
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          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
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          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
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          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0261
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}