{
  "question_id": "W130",
  "slug": "pentagon-takes-1-million-unmanned-systems",
  "title": "The Pentagon takes delivery of 1 million unmanned systems in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W130",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5696
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W130",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6047
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W130",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: an official DoD source must establish actual receipt/acceptance (or explicitly FY-dated delivery/fielding) of >=1,000,000 vehicles within one federal fiscal year (or FYTD); procurement/order quantities, cumulative multi-year totals (e.g., the Army's '1 million in 2-3 years' goal), calendar-year totals and production rates do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W130",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Pentagon now takes delivery of tens of thousands of small drones a year. Its flagship program aims for about 200,000 by early 2028, and funding for a much bigger push is stalled in Congress. Reaching a million deliveries in one fiscal year would take roughly another tenfold increase, and the department would also have to publish that single-year count. The development that would most change this forecast is Congress funding the proposed multi-billion-dollar drone buys.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W130",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 10% by the end of 2031. The US military currently receives tens of thousands of small drones a year, far short of a million. Most of the money meant to reach millions is stuck in Congress. Even if a million arrive in one year, the Pentagon must also publish a statement naming the fiscal year and confirming the deliveries. The biggest change would be Congress funding the roughly $54 billion drone request.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}