{
  "question_id": "W136",
  "slug": "p5-pledge-human-control-of-nuclear-use",
  "title": "The five nuclear powers pledge to keep nuclear use under human control",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W136",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.44
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.49
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.516
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W136",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3562
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.579
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W136",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an explicit collective undertaking (e.g., 'we will/commit to maintain human control over decisions to use nuclear weapons') by all five counts; Biden–Xi-style 'affirmed the need to maintain' or 'recognise the importance' wording is treated as mere recognition and not sufficient.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W136",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 9% by the end of 2031. All five nuclear powers separately say humans will decide on nuclear use, but they have issued no joint statement since January 2022, and Russia blocked similar wording at the May 2026 treaty review. A five-way pledge likely needs a thaw in Russia–West relations; the 2031 review conference is the likeliest moment. A Ukraine settlement or renewed five-power summit would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W136",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 8% by the end of 2031. All five nuclear powers say separately that humans decide on nuclear use, but they have issued no joint statement since January 2022. Russia also had human-control wording removed from the May 2026 nuclear treaty conference draft. The development that would most change this forecast is Russia agreeing to joint wording, for example at a Trump–Putin–Xi meeting or before the 2031 review conference.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}