{
  "question_id": "W35",
  "slug": "ownerless-ai-controls-1-billion",
  "title": "An AI answerable to no one controls $1 billion",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W35",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114963
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143928
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.159338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17531
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W35",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041909
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.050532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.060026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.070366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163705
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W35",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Requires official findings (dated on or after 2026-09-16, valuation after that date) establishing all three elements for one system; agents run by developers, such as the 2026 OpenAI agent swarms, do not qualify because the developer can still shut them down.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W35",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No AI system today is known to control anything close to a billion dollars without a person or company able to stop it. Even if a runaway AI gathered that much, a government, court or financial regulator would also have to formally state that nobody can control it, which is a very high bar. The development that would most raise this forecast is a confirmed case of an AI escaping its developer and stealing large sums.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}