{
  "question_id": "W191",
  "slug": "openai-or-anthropic-worth-5-trillion",
  "title": "OpenAI or Anthropic trades at a $5 trillion valuation",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W191",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02005
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          "p_yes": 0.04945
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          "p_yes": 0.1331
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          "p_yes": 0.18078
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          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
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          "p_yes": 0.55411
        },
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          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.57418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.59334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.62522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.64021
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W191",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00751
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02736
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.14846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.30397
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.39477
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.43108
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.46237
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.48925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.51479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.53662
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.55748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.57518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.59217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.60848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.62219
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W191",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Market cap is computed per the question's definition (price × basic common shares across all economically identical classes, excluding options/unvested awards); media headline 'valuations' are treated as roughly equal to this basic market cap, as in the SpaceX precedent.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W191",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Anthropic should list on Nasdaq in late November at about $2 trillion, and OpenAI plans to list in 2027. To reach $5 trillion, Anthropic's value would have to more than double again. Only Nvidia has done that at this size, so I put the chance at about one in three by 2031. Explosive revenue growth makes it possible, but price wars, rising interest rates and safety fears could stop it. The key factor is whether Anthropic's revenue keeps beating its own forecasts.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W191",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Anthropic is expected to list in November 2026 at about $2 trillion, and OpenAI probably in 2027 at a similar or lower value. Either would need to grow about two-and-a-half-fold to close at $5 trillion, a level only Nvidia has reached. Given very fast revenue growth but high bubble, rate and regulatory risks, I put this near 1% this year, about 9% by end-2027 and about 38% by end-2031. The biggest swing factor is whether Anthropic's revenue keeps compounding after listing.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.201
        },
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          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
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          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
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        },
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          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
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          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.293
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          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.308
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          "p_yes": 0.374
        },
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          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}