{
  "question_id": "W312",
  "slug": "open-weight-model-near-frontier",
  "title": "An open-weight model comes within 2 points of the best on Epoch's index",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W312",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-29",
      "method": "wide-v3",
      "opened": "2026-10-29",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best downloadable models now trail the top model on Epoch's index by about seven to eleven points. That gap has widened as the leading labs speed up. The strongest new Chinese open model, with weights due by November 4, looks about five to seven points short. I put the chance at 3% this year and about 31% by 2031. A sustained slowdown in releases from the top American labs would raise this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}