{
  "question_id": "W316",
  "slug": "open-weight-model-blamed-for-harm",
  "title": "A death or $10 million loss is blamed on an open-weight AI model",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W316",
      "forecast_date": "2026-11-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-11-02",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-11-02",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Hackers, fraudsters and killers now often use AI, and freely downloadable models like DeepSeek are hackers' favourites. But no official source has yet tied a death or a $10 million loss to one while saying how the model was run, so nothing counts yet. I estimate about 10% by end-2027 and about 49% by end-2031. A police force, prosecutor or victim saying attackers used a downloaded or locally run model in a deadly or costly attack would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.431
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.494
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W316",
      "forecast_date": "2026-11-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-11-09",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-11-02",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Hackers and fraudsters increasingly run freely downloadable AI models on their own computers, and official losses from AI-assisted crime are mounting. But police and agencies still describe the AI only vaguely, so no official statement yet ties a death or a $10 million loss to such a model. I estimate about 13% by end-2027 and 57% by end-2031. A prosecutor or cyber agency naming a self-run model in a costly or deadly case would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.57
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}