{
  "question_id": "W315",
  "slug": "open-weight-lab-stops-releasing",
  "title": "A lab that open-sources its best model says it will stop",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W315",
      "forecast_date": "2026-11-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-11-01",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-11-01",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No company covered here has said this yet. Four Chinese labs now qualify because they publish their best models' weights, and pressure on them is growing over hacking risks and new Chinese export rules. But Beijing has kept a fast lane for open publishing, and Chinese labs usually change course quietly rather than announce it. I put the chance at about 9% by end-2027 and 26% by 2031. Final Chinese rules that stop automatically approving open publication would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W315",
      "forecast_date": "2026-11-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-11-08",
      "method": "wide-v3.1",
      "opened": "2026-11-01",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No covered company has said this yet. Four Chinese labs qualify because they publish their best models' weights. This week Beijing and those labs publicly recommitted to open release, even as worries about hacking and planned Chinese rules grow. Labs that change course usually do it quietly, so I put the chance near 8% by end-2027 and 27% by 2031. Final Chinese rules that bar top models from open release, or keep them inside China, would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}