{
  "question_id": "W262",
  "slug": "official-documents-machine-translated-by-default",
  "title": "The EU or UN publishes unrevised machine translations by default",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W262",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13555
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W262",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A general body-wide default may retain genuine risk-based exceptions, including for sensitive official documents, but category-limited unreviewed translation and any routine human linguistic check remain non-qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00917
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16238
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W262",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: only an adopted, body-wide default that explicitly publishes machine translation as the official language version with no routine human reading counts (sample audits or risk-based referrals allowed). Tiered or document-type-specific policies, 'AI with human oversight', and advance or unofficial machine versions alongside human-reviewed ones do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0484
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W262",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both the UN conference department and the European Commission's translation service said in writing in 2026 that humans must check machine translations of official documents. Member states and multilingualism rules strongly back that position. AI keeps improving and budget pressure is severe, so the chance grows over time, but I put it at only about 5% by 2031. The development most likely to change this would be a UN or EU budget plan endorsing AI translation without routine human review.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W262",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both the European Commission's translation department and the UN's conference department said publicly in 2026 that human experts must keep checking translations of official documents. UN member states insist that any change needs their approval, and EU language law and politics strongly resist unreviewed machine translation. I put the chance at about 4% by the end of 2031. The biggest shift would be an adopted Commission or UN decision making AI translation the default, with human checks only by exception.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0397
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}