{
  "question_id": "W261",
  "slug": "oecd-country-bans-ai-in-schools",
  "title": "An OECD country bans generative AI for school pupils",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W261",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0796
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1732
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2662
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2853
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3347
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W261",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2681
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3583
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W261",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A qualifying measure must be a binding national instrument banning pupil use of generative AI (including teacher-supervised use, without teacher-approved exemptions) at primary, lower- and upper-secondary levels in all public schools; age-tiered regimes like Norway's or local moratoria like NYC/LAUSD do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0643
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W261",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a qualifying national ban by the end of 2031 at about 6%, and under 1% this year. No wealthy democracy has banned pupils from using AI tools at every school level, and none has proposed it. Even the strictest country, Norway, only discourages AI for young children and teaches older teens to use it. A ban covering every grade, including teacher-supervised use, is very unlikely soon. My estimate would rise most if any national government extended an all-ages school ban to its older secondary students.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W261",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No wealthy-country government has banned all pupils from using AI tools at every school level, and none is planning to. Even the strictest moves, such as Norway's guidance for younger children and New York City's ban through eighth grade, keep AI use for older teenagers, and most countries are teaching AI skills instead. I put the chance at about 5% by 2031. A national government declaring a temporary nationwide AI moratorium for all pupils, including upper secondary, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}