{
  "question_id": "W295",
  "slug": "nvidia-datacentre-revenue-falls",
  "title": "NVIDIA's datacentre revenue falls year on year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W295",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6284
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W295",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4795
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6022
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W295",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "NVIDIA's data-centre sales are still more than doubling from a year earlier, and the company expects roughly 70 percent growth in the year to January 2028, so a drop before 2028 is very unlikely. Over five years, though, chip booms this large nearly always produce a down quarter, and forecasters expect spending growth to fade after 2028 as rival chips gain ground. The development that would most change it is whether artificial-intelligence spending keeps climbing after 2028.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.572
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W295",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "NVIDIA's data-centre sales are still roughly doubling, and the company expects about 70% growth next year. That makes a year-over-year drop before 2028 very unlikely. The real risk is an AI spending slowdown in 2028–2031: after such a steep climb, even a plateau would leave some quarter below its year-earlier level. I put that at roughly even odds by the end of 2031. Big cuts to big tech's 2028 spending plans would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.513
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}