{
  "question_id": "W137",
  "slug": "nuclear-alert-raised-over-ai",
  "title": "A nuclear state raises its alert level, citing another state's AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W137",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1482
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W137",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.100295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.130541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.140975
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W137",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Statements of maintained/unchanged readiness, conditional nuclear threats, and AI mentioned without an explicit causal link to an already-effective alert increase are treated as non-qualifying; AI attribution must be explicit in the official statement itself.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W137",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 3% by the end of 2031. Governments rarely announce that they have put nuclear forces on higher alert (Russia's 2022 order is the last clear case), and no such announcement has ever blamed another country's artificial intelligence. The development that would most change this is Russia formally raising its nuclear alert in its current standoff with NATO over Kaliningrad and naming Western AI-guided weapons as a reason.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W137",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Governments very rarely announce that they have raised the alert level of their nuclear forces: about three times since 1990. None has ever named another country's artificial intelligence as a reason. Tensions are high, with Russia threatening NATO over Kaliningrad and North Korea testing missiles it says use AI, but neither has announced an alert change. The biggest shift would be North Korea or Russia putting nuclear forces on alert while naming an opponent's AI-guided weapons.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0382
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}