{
  "question_id": "W8",
  "slug": "no-human-contributes-to-frontier-research",
  "title": "A lab says no human contributes materially to its frontier research",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W8",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05945
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1835
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.20146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23621
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25301
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W8",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I treat developer-authored statements by the continuing xAI/Grok research operation under its SpaceXAI branding as statements by covered developer xAI.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.160943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.178563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.196635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23395
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W8",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "AI companies say their models now do a growing share of their own research; Anthropic says its AI leads about a quarter of the work. But all of them stress that people still set direction, and they aim to keep it that way. Saying outright that no human contributes would invite regulation and legal trouble. I estimate about a 5% chance by 2031. What would most change this is a lab reporting that its AI runs all research fully on its own.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0524
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W8",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 7% by end-2031 and near zero for 2026. AI already does much of the research work at the leading labs, but each lab still says that people choose research priorities and judge results. Saying humans contribute nothing would amount to admitting the loss of control every lab calls the disaster to avoid. The development that would most change this is a lab's own automation index showing fully autonomous research across all of its work.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0712
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}