{
  "question_id": "W267",
  "slug": "newspaper-mostly-written-by-ai",
  "title": "A leading newspaper says most of its articles are AI-written",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W267",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23533
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W267",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.131285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.174179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.197302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.221382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.246298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.271924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.298135
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W267",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "All six newspapers publicly promise that their journalism is written by people. Even companies that use AI heavily avoid announcing how much of their writing it does. A yes would need one of these papers both to let AI write most of its articles and to say so officially, which is unlikely within five years. The likeliest change would be the Wall Street Journal or the Asahi Shimbun, whose leaders strongly favour AI, starting mass AI-written routine stories and publicising the share.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W267",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "All six newspapers have publicly committed to human-written journalism. Independent audits find AI wrote under 1% of news articles at the American titles checked, and saying most articles are AI-written would hurt the trust these papers sell. Even the most AI-enthusiastic of them, Asahi, quickly insisted that AI \"only assists\" when criticised. The development that would most change this forecast is the Wall Street Journal or Asahi moving to having AI write most articles and openly describing it that way.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0344
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}