{
  "question_id": "W94",
  "slug": "national-referendum-on-ai",
  "title": "A country holds a national referendum on AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W94",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3921
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W94",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I exclude broad internet-regulation and nuclear-energy referendums even when their official materials discuss AI extensively, unless governing AI itself is the principal decision.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3987
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4228
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W94",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Applied the 'mainly about AI' test strictly: votes on platform/internet regulation (e.g., Swiss Internet-Initiative), nuclear or data-centre questions where AI is only a campaign argument do not count, whereas a Swiss vote on a decree approving/implementing the Council of Europe AI Convention, or an initiative whose principal subject is AI, would count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W94",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country has ever held a national vote mainly about artificial intelligence, and none is scheduled. The likeliest route is Switzerland: its first law on the technology goes to consultation in spring 2027 and could be forced to a public vote around 2030–2031, or campaigners could start a citizens' initiative on it. Odds stay tiny before 2029 and reach nearly one in five by 2031. A Swiss initiative on artificial intelligence launching in 2027 would most raise this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W94",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country has scheduled a national vote mainly about artificial intelligence, and none looks feasible before 2029. Switzerland is the likeliest place: two AI laws (copyright rules for AI and joining a European AI treaty) should clear Parliament around 2029–2030 and opponents could force a popular vote, but its election-year calendar allows no federal votes after June 2031. A referendum campaign against either Swiss law would raise this forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}