{
  "question_id": "W258",
  "slug": "naep-grade-8-math-reaches-290",
  "title": "The US grade 8 maths score reaches 290",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W258",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03763
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03888
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W258",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W258",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "National average = NAEP 'National' (public + private) all-students grade 8 math mean (2024 = 274, unrounded 273.83); only the winter-2028 and winter-2030 main NAEP grade 8 math assessments can qualify within the window.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W258",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a reported national 8th-grade math average of 290 or higher by the end of 2031 at about 0.3%. The 2024 average was 274, and the record is 285 from 2013. Reaching 290 would take a 16-point jump by the 2028 or 2030 test, two to three times faster than any gain ever recorded, while teen scores are flat. What would most change this is a big, officially comparable jump in the 2028 results.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W258",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 0.3% by the end of 2031. America's eighth-grade math average was 274 in 2024 and has never been above 285. Reaching 290 would take roughly twice the fastest gain in the test's history, and middle-school math scores are currently flat. Only the 2028 and 2030 tests count. The development that would most change this is a surprisingly large jump in the 2026 or 2028 results.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}