{
  "question_id": "W275",
  "slug": "most-households-have-a-robot",
  "title": "Most households in a country have a domestic robot",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W275",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.060936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08612
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W275",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05252
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W275",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only official national household statistics whose definitions, survey instrument or identified models establish autonomous capability in at least three domestic task domains count; robot vacuums, companion robots and generic 'service/smart-home robot' categories do not, and an administrative count of households equipped through a national programme would count only if published as an official statistic.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00427
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W275",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The chance is close to zero, about 0.3% by the end of 2031. Robots that can do several kinds of household chores are only now reaching their first buyers. They sell in the thousands, cost about $20,000, and still need human remote help, while robot vacuums are in only about a fifth of US homes after twenty years. What would most change this is a sudden jump to cheap, fully independent home robots by about 2029, taken up by a small, wealthy country.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W275",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Robots that can do several household chores on their own have only just gone on sale. A few thousand units ship each year, prices run from $3,500 to $20,000, and they still often fail at tasks. Even smartphones took about five years to reach half of Japanese homes, and no statistics office yet asks about such robots. The thing that would most change this forecast is a sudden robotics boom that makes capable home robots cheap and plentiful by around 2029.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00421
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}