{
  "question_id": "W9",
  "slug": "model-designed-and-trained-by-predecessors",
  "title": "A frontier model designed and trained by its predecessors alone",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W9",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5236
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W9",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0854
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4328
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W9",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Automated RSI/post-training cycles applied to a human-pretrained model (e.g., Alibaba's 22 Sep 2026 Qwen3.8-Max 'fully automated runs' claim) do not cover the entire development scope and do not explicitly exclude human technical decisions, so they do not qualify; human approval of AI-proposed choices counts as a human technical decision.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1258
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W9",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "AI already does a large and fast-growing share of AI research. But every leading lab currently says humans still set direction and approve key choices, and they are under strong political pressure to keep it that way. This question needs an explicit statement that humans made no technical decisions at all, so it is unlikely soon and only modestly likely by 2031. A lab declaring that some part of its research runs with no human in the loop would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W9",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "AI is quickly taking over AI research inside the big labs, but none of them is close to saying a top model was built entirely by an earlier AI with no human technical choices. The safety-minded leaders also have strong reasons to keep humans approving key decisions and to say so. My estimate rises slowly to about 18% by 2031. A lab openly reporting that its flagship model's whole development ran with no human in the loop would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}