{
  "question_id": "W93",
  "slug": "million-worker-strike-over-ai",
  "title": "A million workers strike over AI or automation",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W93",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0963
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2623
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W93",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2971
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3146
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W93",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A wire's own-voice description such as 'millions of workers went on strike' is treated as a >=1M estimate, and a distinct AI/automation demand in a short official list of main demands may qualify as principal, whereas a passing mention or an affiliate-only call does not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W93",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Strikes over AI and robots are now happening, but the biggest so far involved tens of thousands of workers, not a million. Countries with million-worker general strikes, such as India, France and Argentina, are striking over labour laws, budgets and pay. News agencies also rarely give their own count of a million or more strikers. If AI destroys jobs fast enough that a major Indian or European union coalition names it as a main reason for a national general strike, the odds would rise sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0583
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W93",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "There is no recent precedent for a strike of a million or more workers called mainly over artificial intelligence or automation. Today's strikes over these technologies involve tens of thousands of workers at most. The giant national strikes in India, France and Spain concern labour laws, wages and housing, and news agencies rarely confirm turnouts above a million themselves. The forecast would rise sharply if a large national union federation called a general strike centred on job losses from artificial intelligence.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0507
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}