{
  "question_id": "W228",
  "slug": "millennium-prize-for-ai-proof",
  "title": "A Millennium Prize is awarded for an AI-produced proof",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W228",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011944
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.30344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.387027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.460584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.51992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.567928
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.606814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.638269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.66359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.683775
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W228",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.257551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.339221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.418514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.485385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.541993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.587793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.624892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.656776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.684234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.707917
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W228",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A CMI award for the Navier–Stokes (or another) problem that recognizes the AI-generated solution (e.g., OpenAI's paper) counts even if the recipient declines or the prize is shared with or redirected to human contributors such as Córdoba/Martínez-Zoroa; an award only for an independent human proof would not count; OpenAI's post-16-Sep statements (or later journal/CMI-quoted statements) are treated as qualifying author attributions.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W228",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "OpenAI's computer-checked, AI-produced proof of the Navier–Stokes problem probably settles it, but the Clay Institute calls its review \"deliberately unhurried\". Its rules require a published solution plus a two-year wait, so no award can come before late 2028. Credit disputes, OpenAI declining to claim the prize and mathematicians' hostility to AI labs could delay it further. A Clay decision to treat OpenAI's 2026 posting as the qualifying publication would raise these odds most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W228",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "An AI system from OpenAI appears to have solved the Navier–Stokes prize problem, and the Clay Institute calls it \"apparently settled.\" But its rules require publication, at least two years of scrutiny, and a review committee. OpenAI says it won't claim the prize, and leading mathematicians are wary of AI labs. An award before late 2028 is very unlikely; I put about one in four on one by end-2031. A Clay statement on whether AI-produced proofs can win would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}