{
  "question_id": "W117",
  "slug": "military-strike-to-slow-ai",
  "title": "A state strikes a datacentre or chip fab to slow AI development",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W117",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2673
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3392
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W117",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3263
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W117",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An official attacker statement that the struck datacentre or fab was used for AI research, model training or AI development, which implies the strike aimed to disrupt that, is treated as likely (not certain) to qualify; labelling a target an 'AI datacentre', citing AI used for targeting or intelligence, or citing retaliation does not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W117",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has ever said it struck a data centre or chip factory to slow artificial intelligence development. Such sites are now regular targets in the Russia–Ukraine and Iran wars, including Ukraine's October 8 strike on a Yandex data centre holding supercomputers, but attackers cite retaliation or military communications, which do not count. So the chance stays low, about one in nine by 2031. An official statement tying a strike to disrupting artificial intelligence training would change that most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W117",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Ukraine has just knocked out Russia's main AI supercomputer sites with drones, and Iran threatens Gulf AI facilities. So far, though, every official explanation has been retaliation or military use, never slowing AI development. That is why the chance stays modest: about 5% by year-end and about 24% by 2031. The biggest change would come if Ukraine's military or president explicitly said a strike was meant to slow Russian AI work.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.241
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}