{
  "question_id": "W250",
  "slug": "medical-ai-errors-linked-to-100-deaths",
  "title": "Medical AI errors are found to have contributed to 100 deaths",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W250",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1867
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2854
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W250",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2231
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W250",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only a single qualifying authority's adopted finding with an explicit count of at least 100 deaths tied to one identifiable AI or knowledge-based system; general-purpose consumer chatbots count only if the finding places them in screening, diagnosis, triage or treatment. This is immaterial to the low forecast.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0249
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W250",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No court, regulator or inquiry has ever found that one medical software system, AI or not, contributed to 100 or more deaths. Nothing now under way looks likely to: the UnitedHealth insurance-AI lawsuit is still in discovery, and the English inquiry into a camera monitoring system won't report until 2028. Wider use of AI makes a future scandal possible, but inquiries take years. A fast official probe of a large AI triage or insurance failure would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W250",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No court, regulator or inquiry has ever officially blamed a medical AI system for 100 or more deaths. Official bodies rarely put death counts on any software failure. The current cases (the UnitedHealth denial lawsuit, a camera monitoring system in an English mental-health inquiry, Australia's aged-care funding tool) are unlikely to produce such a finding. I put the chance at about 3% by the end of 2031. A major failure of a widely used AI system that led to a formal inquiry counting deaths would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}