{
  "question_id": "W279",
  "slug": "malaria-deaths-below-300000",
  "title": "Malaria deaths fall below 300,000 a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W279",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015824
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034795
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W279",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06299
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W279",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only WHO central global estimates for calendar years 2026-2030 count; these can first appear in World malaria report 2027 (expected Dec 2027), since WMR 2026 (Dec 2026) covers 2025 and cannot resolve YES.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W279",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The World Health Organization's latest estimate is about 610,000 malaria deaths in 2024, and the figure has stayed between roughly 570,000 and 620,000 for a decade. Getting below 300,000 would mean more than halving deaths within a few years. That is far faster than the best period on record, while aid cuts point to rising deaths. The development that would most change this forecast is the agency adopting a new estimation method that sharply lowers its figures.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W279",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "WHO's latest estimate is about 610,000 malaria deaths in 2024. The December 2026 report will only cover 2025, which does not count. A later report would have to show deaths cut by more than half, more than twice the fastest decline WHO has ever recorded, while aid cuts push deaths up. What would most change this forecast is WHO adopting a new estimation method that sharply lowers its death figures.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}