{
  "question_id": "W126",
  "slug": "major-power-fields-autonomous-weapons",
  "title": "A major power says it fields fully autonomous lethal weapons",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W126",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
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          "p_yes": 0.3582
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          "p_yes": 0.3935
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        {
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        {
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          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5429
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5681
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5918
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6555
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W126",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0677
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1003
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1622
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1974
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2311
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2634
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3282
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3604
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3911
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6037
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W126",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: an eligible official source must explicitly establish, for the same fielded system and mode, authorised selection of people as targets and attack without per-engagement human approval; generic 'autonomous/AI-enabled' rhetoric, policy revisions (e.g., a new 3000.09), third-party or contractor claims do not suffice.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W126",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the seven governments has ever officially said it uses a weapon that picks out and attacks people without a human approving each strike. All of them still say publicly that humans make the lethal decisions. Autonomous weapons are spreading fast, so the odds rise over five years, but openly admitting this carries legal and diplomatic costs. The biggest change would be Russia's or America's military describing a deployed drone that hunts soldiers on its own.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
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          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
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          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
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          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
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          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
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          "p_yes": 0.109
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          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
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      ],
      "passes": []
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  ],
  "declined": []
}