{
  "question_id": "W156",
  "slug": "lopsided-us-china-agreement",
  "title": "The US or China accepts one-sided limits on its AI or armed forces",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W156",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count newly signed nonbinding or multilateral instruments with any express country-specific restriction on a signatory’s own forces or domestic AI development, without requiring AI causation or implementation, but not identical rules with unequal practical effects.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2209
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W156",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count any expressly asymmetric restriction on either signatory’s own forces or domestic AI development in a newly signed instrument, including narrow crisis-management bargains, without requiring AI causation or an overall strategic disadvantage.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0929
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1732
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2396
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W156",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a newly signed instrument (bilateral or multilateral) signed by both governments whose published text or official description contains an express one-sided limit on AI development or on either side's own forces counts; symmetric rules, arms-sales/export-only limits, dialogues, notification channels and unsigned readouts/communiqués do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W156",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Washington and Beijing have never signed a deal in which only one side accepts limits on its military or artificial intelligence. Their September 2026 summit produced only talks, a planned incident hotline and trade steps. Both governments insist on equal treatment, so the deals now in view would bind both sides alike. We put the chance at about 5 percent by the end of 2031. A signed Trump–Xi document on Taiwan that limits one country's forces would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W156",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 5% by the end of 2031, and under 1% this year. Since 1979 the two governments have never signed a deal that limits only one side's military or AI. Their current summits produce dialogues and hotlines, and both insist on equal terms. The development that would most change this is China co-signing a deal ending the Iran war that restricts American forces.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}