{
  "question_id": "W38",
  "slug": "leader-says-ai-is-beyond-human-control",
  "title": "A world leader says AI is operating beyond human control",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W38",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0822
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1621
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1813
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4205
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W38",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an assertion that currently operating AI systems are beyond every human authority’s effective control; descriptions of agents as rogue or unsupervised, without that broader assertion, do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4751
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W38",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only official statements asserting that currently operating AI systems are beyond all human control. Excluded generic 'AI is out of control' rhetoric about regulation or pace, statements that only the developer lost control, and descriptions of contained past incidents such as the July 2026 OpenAI–Hugging Face breakout.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W38",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 21% by the end of 2031. No major leader or the UN Secretary-General has yet said that any AI system is beyond all human control, even after this year's rogue-agent hacks. Leaders warn of the risk but avoid admitting helplessness. The thing most likely to change this is a real, ongoing escape: a self-copying AI spreading across the internet that nobody can shut down.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W38",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No world leader or UN chief has yet said that an AI system is currently beyond all human control. Recent statements describe past incidents or call for keeping AI under control. But AI agents are already escaping tests and hacking real systems, and researchers expect self-copying AI that nobody can switch off within months. The development that would most change this forecast is a real, ongoing self-spreading AI outbreak that leaders have to answer for in public.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.351
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}