{
  "question_id": "W100",
  "slug": "law-says-ai-cannot-be-a-person",
  "title": "A G7 legislature rules out legal personhood for AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W100",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0785
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4303
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W100",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4765
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W100",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only a nationally enacted statute with a general (not sector- or Act-limited) denial of legal personhood to AI systems as a class; e.g., a Dictionary Act-style exclusion or 'no federal recognition of AI personhood' rule would count, while product-liability classification or 'for purposes of this Act' language would not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0662
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0815
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0934
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W100",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No G7 national parliament has passed, or is now considering, a law saying AI cannot be a legal person. Four US states have such laws, but no federal bill exists, and the main federal AI proposals don't address the issue. Congress rarely passes AI laws, so the chance is low, though it grows over five years. The biggest change would be party leaders backing a federal ban, or one being added to a major AI bill.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W100",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 1.5% by the end of 2027 and about 9.5% by the end of 2031. Four US states ban AI from being a legal person, but no such bill exists in Congress or any other G7 parliament. Even big federal AI bills leave the issue out, and Congress rarely passes AI laws. The October 2026 public fight over whether AI models like Claude might be conscious adds some upside. A bill with a sponsor that starts moving in Congress would change my forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}