{
  "question_id": "W95",
  "slug": "law-protects-human-jobs-from-ai",
  "title": "A G20 country requires employers to keep human workers",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W95",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I treat a sectoral ban on AI performing a task or generating content as insufficient unless its operative text also directly constrains employer staffing or replacement of human workers.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2786
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3944
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5822
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.653
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W95",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require the named sector or occupation to be expressly covered by the AI staffing or replacement restriction; occupation names appearing only in unrelated provisions of the amended statute do not suffice.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6436
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W95",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Economy-wide AI substitution caps (e.g., Mexico's proposed 40% cap) count only if the operative text names a sector/occupation; task bans (e.g., AI dubbing bans) and human-oversight/judgment reservations do not count; public-sector-specific replacement bans (e.g., teachers, translators in agencies) count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W95",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy has yet passed a national law that explicitly forbids replacing workers in a specific sector with artificial intelligence, and nothing qualifying has appeared since mid-September 2026. The leading candidate is a Brazilian bill banning the replacement of teachers by such systems, amid growing job-loss worries worldwide. I put the chance near 1% this year, rising to about one in three by 2031. Final approval of Brazil's teacher bill would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.332
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W95",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy has yet passed a national law that clearly bars employers from replacing workers with AI in a named sector, and nothing like it is close to final approval. Bills in Brazil, such as one banning the replacement of teachers, and in Mexico make it plausible over five years. That puts the chance near one in three by 2031. Brazil's teacher-protection bill clearing both chambers would most raise the forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}