{
  "question_id": "W102",
  "slug": "law-protects-ai-from-shutdown",
  "title": "A law restricts shutting down an AI for the AI's own sake",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W102",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0518
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0613
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0744
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0911
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2607
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W102",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00917
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06713
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22212
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W102",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Applied the definitions strictly: restrictions motivated by human users' relationships, safety, cybersecurity 'integrity', or corporate governance (e.g., AI-run company laws) do not count; a conditional protection for a sentience-defined class with a mandatory precondition on shutdown/deletion/modification would count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0382
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W102",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country or US state has ever passed such a law, and none is even proposed. Recent laws go the other way: four US states have banned AI personhood, and lawmakers want mandatory off-switches after AI models escaped containment in 2026. Even AI-welfare experts say legislating now is premature. The chance is small: about 4% by end-2031. The biggest shift would come if a government formally proposed protecting possibly-sentient AI from deletion.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W102",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country or US state has a law protecting an AI system from being shut down, deleted or modified for its own sake, and no such bill is pending anywhere. Lawmakers are moving the other way, passing bans on AI personhood and pushing emergency \"kill switches.\" Over five years, fast AI progress and the sheer number of legislatures leave a small chance. A major scientific or public turn toward treating AI as conscious, followed by a protective bill advancing anywhere, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0378
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}