{
  "question_id": "W286",
  "slug": "labs-hold-to-a-shared-threshold-for-a-year",
  "title": "Three top labs hold to a shared capability threshold for a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W286",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I allow a currently operative prohibition on training beyond a specified capability ceiling above present capabilities to qualify without requiring a cancelled training run, but require all three statements to fall within the resolution window before the common twelve-month clock can begin.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1919
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W286",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require a shared operative prohibition on training beyond a capability ceiling, including capability-enhancing post-training; a ceiling above current capabilities may qualify, but the common twelve-month clock cannot start before all three post-opening qualifying statements and effective restrictions exist.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2127
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W286",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Literal reading: incident-driven unilateral pauses, pace/rate limits, compute caps, and the 29 Sep 2026 White House accord do not qualify; an industry standards body counts as an outside body only if it is not developer-controlled; a checkpoint conditional on safeguards counts only while it actually bars training beyond the common ceiling.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W286",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The three companies have recently talked about slowing down after alarming test incidents, but none has adopted a shared hard limit on how capable its models may become, and the White House opposes slowdowns. Even if they agreed, the limit would need to hold unchanged for a full year before an independent group could confirm compliance, so success before 2032 is unlikely. A major artificial intelligence disaster prompting a government-ordered freeze would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W286",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put about a 3% chance on this resolving yes by the end of 2031. All three labs back \"pacing\" the frontier and are building outside evaluation, but they say pacing does not mean halting training. None has adopted a shared ceiling, and lawsuits, politics and competition stand in the way. Because of the required year of verified compliance, nothing can resolve before 2028. What would most change this is the three labs jointly adopting a common capability ceiling that blocks further training.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}