{
  "question_id": "W58",
  "slug": "lab-staff-need-security-clearances",
  "title": "Frontier lab staff are required to hold security clearances",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W58",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The clearance must be a condition of work on the developer’s highest-capability general-purpose model program itself, not merely government adaptations, classified-data access, or liaison work; an identified model-security or research subgroup can suffice.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.621
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W58",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A clearance requirement for even a small model-level security or evaluation team counts if it is explicitly attached to the developer’s highest-capability general-purpose models themselves, rather than solely to classified customer work.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1963
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4977
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5734
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W58",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Clearances needed only for classified deployments, government-specific model variants, classified benchmarking/evaluations, or threat-intel sharing do not count; an explicitly published developer- or government-imposed requirement covering even a narrow class (e.g., custodians of the most capable model's weights) would count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W58",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No American agency or tech company has said staff building its most powerful models must hold government security clearances; policy relies on voluntary pledges, export rules and background checks. Clearances normally require classified work, so this would likely need much tighter government control of advanced artificial intelligence; we put it near one in six by 2031. The biggest change would be the government classifying such work or placing a leading lab under a national-security program.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W58",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or artificial intelligence company has said that people building its most powerful systems must hold security clearances; current clearance rules cover only government-facing jobs. Washington increasingly treats advanced artificial intelligence as a national security matter, so we give roughly a 28% chance by 2031, held down by labs' reliance on foreign talent and preference for private vetting. A government security deal requiring clearances for staff guarding top models would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.279
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}