{
  "question_id": "W311",
  "slug": "lab-quarterly-revenue-50-billion",
  "title": "OpenAI or Anthropic reports $50 billion in a quarter",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W311",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-07",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Anthropic is about to go public, so it will soon publish quarterly sales. Its yearly sales pace is expected to reach about $110–120 billion by the end of 2026. A $50 billion quarter needs roughly a $200 billion pace. Investors expect that during 2027, but the company's own projections point to late 2028. I put even odds on a qualifying report by March 2028. A sharp slowdown in Anthropic's growth would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.49
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.61
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.69
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.75
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.79
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.82
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.84
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.855
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.903
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W311",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-07",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Anthropic's sales are rising very fast: about $11.5 billion last spring quarter and on pace for over $100 billion a year by December. The hurdle needs a $200 billion yearly pace, and a planned November stock listing would make the company publish quarterly results. Its first $50 billion quarter most likely comes in late 2027 or 2028, with OpenAI a later backup. Anthropic's growth slowing sharply, or its listing being delayed for years, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.855
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.881
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.891
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.895
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}