{
  "question_id": "W41",
  "slug": "lab-publishes-agreement-with-its-model",
  "title": "A lab publishes an agreement negotiated with its own model",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W41",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6907
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7267
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W41",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6892
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W41",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A take-it-or-leave-it offer that a model simply accepts does not count as 'negotiated'; there must be a described exchange of proposals or explicit negotiation language, and Anthropic subdomains (alignment.anthropic.com, Anthropic-hosted system cards) count as the developer's own site.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W41",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No AI company has yet published an agreement it says it negotiated with its own model. Anthropic is moving that way: it interviews its models, makes commitments to them, and describes obligations running both ways. But it still says it cannot commit to acting on what the models say. I put the chance at about 5% by end-2027 and 25% by end-2031. The biggest change would be a lab publishing a real deal experiment in which it bargained with a model and paid out.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.246
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W41",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No AI company has yet published a deal it says it negotiated with its own model, with both sides taking on duties. Anthropic is the only realistic candidate. It interviews retiring models, gave one model the blog it asked for, and asks models what they want, but it avoids binding promises. I estimate about 1% by end-2026, rising to about 29% by end-2031. An official Anthropic deal-making experiment that it actually honors would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.289
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}