{
  "question_id": "W291",
  "slug": "lab-ordered-to-delete-weights",
  "title": "A lab is ordered to delete a model's weights, and complies",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W291",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2862
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.43
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5036
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W291",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0767
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.495
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W291",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Any Meta-developed model counts, but for Google/ByteDance/Alibaba the model must be attributable to Google DeepMind/ByteDance Seed/Qwen; agreed consent judgments with mandatory deletion count as orders, while withdrawal, geo-blocking, unlearning or voluntary retirement do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W291",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or court has ever ordered one of these ten companies to delete a model and then had the company publicly confirm it. Investigations into this year's incidents, in which rogue software agents hacked outside systems, are pursuing restrictions, oversight and liability rather than deletion, so I estimate about 7.5% over five years. A regulator or court demanding deletion of a specific misbehaving model, such as OpenAI's quarantined internal model, would raise this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W291",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or court has ever ordered one of these leading AI companies to delete a model and then had the company confirm it did so. Even this year's toughest actions against them relied on fines, data deletion, product changes and access limits. I put the chance at about 5% by the end of 2031, rising slowly. A judge or regulator ordering destruction of a specific model, in a major copyright or AI-safety case, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0463
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}