{
  "question_id": "W99",
  "slug": "lab-or-executive-convicted",
  "title": "A lab or executive is convicted over AI-caused harm",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W99",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I include recommender systems as well as generative models when the convicted entity satisfies the specified covered-developer ownership and operational tests, and count established privacy or other rights infringements as actual harm without requiring physical injury.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1835
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5585
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W99",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21918
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.37323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.40206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.43017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.45752
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W99",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No court has yet convicted a leading artificial intelligence company or its bosses over harm caused by its systems, and no such case is near trial. The likeliest route is France's criminal investigation of Elon Musk's X and xAI over sexual deepfakes and Holocaust-denial posts by the Grok chatbot, but French cases like this usually take five years or more. French judges sending that case to trial would change this forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W99",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about one in four by late 2031. France's criminal case against Elon Musk's X and his artificial intelligence company over the Grok chatbot's sexual deepfakes, child abuse images and Holocaust-denial posts is the main route, but French cases like this often take five years or more to reach a verdict. Other probes look weaker. A French decision sending the X case to trial would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.261
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}