{
  "question_id": "W11",
  "slug": "lab-halves-research-staff",
  "title": "A lab halves its research staff, citing AI automation",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W11",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3015
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W11",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2971
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W11",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Treated SpaceXAI (xAI's post-merger successor AI unit within SpaceX) as the xAI scope, and treated executives' personal social-media posts (e.g., Musk on X) as not independently qualifying for the AI-automation attribution unless issued through official company channels.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0473
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W11",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the ten covered companies has come close to halving its research and engineering staff while blaming automation. The leading labs are still hiring, and Meta, the likeliest candidate, scaled back an automation-driven layoff plan this year and now stresses keeping people. Strict proof rules make a qualifying announcement rarer still. I estimate about 1% by end-2027 and 5% by end-2031. A revived, far larger Meta cut openly credited to artificial intelligence would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0431
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W11",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 5% by the end of 2031. No major AI developer has come close to halving its research and engineering staff while officially blaming AI. The labs are hiring fast. Meta, the likeliest candidate, scaled back its AI-driven layoff plan and avoids citing AI in its filings. The odds rise slowly as AI takes over more engineering work. A large new Meta or xAI cut that is officially credited to AI would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0521
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}