{
  "question_id": "W69",
  "slug": "lab-forced-to-divest",
  "title": "A frontier lab is forced to divest a business",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W69",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I do not automatically equate a consumer AI-assistant market with a market for supplying AI models or model APIs, and I treat an investor as a parent only where it actually controls the covered developer.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0912
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3027
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W69",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0681
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3697
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W69",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An express AI-specific market heading or label (e.g., Mehta's 'The GenAI Market' findings) in the remedy decision or its incorporated opinion satisfies 'names a market'; divestitures must be binding (court-entered or formally accepted settlements), so unilateral EU/CMA/NDRC orders do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W69",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 4% by the end of 2031, and near zero this year. No pending case looks likely to qualify. In September a judge refused to make Google sell its ad exchange, Musk lost his suit against OpenAI, and recent big AI deals were cleared without conditions. Forced sales by these companies are historically almost unheard of. The development that would most change this is a large AI computing or chip merger cleared on condition of a sale.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0397
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W69",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No court or competition regulator has ever forced one of these artificial intelligence developers or their parent companies to sell a business through a settlement or court order. Recent cases against Google and Meta ended without breakups, and the government dropped its push to make Google sell Chrome. The likeliest route is a big acquisition approved only if a business is sold; a Tesla–SpaceX merger drawing such a demand would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0425
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}