{
  "question_id": "W42",
  "slug": "lab-defers-to-a-models-objection",
  "title": "A lab declines to retrain or shut down a model because it objected",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W42",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count a real objection-driven decision about even one persistent configuration or running instance, including a newly published account of an earlier decision, but not generic welfare policies, temporary delays, or evaluation-only choices.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4764
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6635
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W42",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.618
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W42",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A qualifying statement must explicitly attribute (at least in part) a decision to forgo or change a specific planned retraining/modification/shutdown of the same model (including checkpoints of the same model during training, or a deployment/instance of it) to that model's own objection; changes to future model versions prompted by earlier models' objections, general commitments, and continued-availability decisions not framed as responding to opposition are treated as non-qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.396
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W42",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Anthropic, the only company seriously asking its models what they want, often reports their wishes but has never clearly said it dropped a planned retraining, change, or shutdown because a model objected. It came closest in June 2026, redesigning a safety feature partly after a model raised concerns. I estimate about 3% by end of 2026, rising to about 45% by 2031. A formal process giving models' objections real weight would most raise this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.453
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}