{
  "question_id": "W7",
  "slug": "lab-declares-superintelligence",
  "title": "A lab officially declares it has built superintelligence",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W7",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3922
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7964
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W7",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I treat Meta’s September 2026 statement that it is 'building personal superintelligence into devices' as prospective development language in context, not an affirmative classification of the existing Muse system.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6855
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8532
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W7",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: requires the one-word term 'superintelligence' in a developer's official voice classifying a specific existing system; vision/slogan statements (e.g., Meta's 'we're putting superintelligence in everyone's hands') and the White House's two-word 'Super Intelligence' renaming do not qualify, with a small probability allowed that a resolver counts already-published Meta Connect 2026 wording.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.415
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W7",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 6% chance by the end of 2026, rising to roughly 42% by the end of 2031. Meta is the most likely to make such a claim: it already markets its Muse assistant as heading toward \"personal superintelligence\" but still says Muse will only \"grow into\" it. President Trump's order renaming AI \"Super Intelligence\" makes the term politically popular, but companies mostly write it as two words, which likely doesn't count. An official Meta statement that Muse \"is\" personal superintelligence would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}