{
  "question_id": "W284",
  "slug": "lab-ceo-says-expert-level-ai-is-a-decade-away",
  "title": "A top lab's CEO says expert-level AI is over a decade away",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W284",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require a serving CEO, acting-CEO, or co-CEO role rather than divisional leadership alone, so neither Demis Hassabis as DeepMind Chair nor Koray Kavukcuoglu as DeepMind SVP currently qualifies absent a subsequent appointment to such a role.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0735
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1681
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1911
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W284",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I apply the specified CEO, acting-CEO or co-CEO role requirement literally: Hassabis's chairmanship and Kavukcuoglu's SVP appointment do not alone qualify, although a subsequent appointment to a qualifying chief-executive role would.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2279
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W284",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Hassabis (now Chair, a former CEO) is excluded; Google DeepMind's head Koray Kavukcuoglu holds an SVP rather than CEO title, so under a literal reading GDM currently has no qualifying chief executive — I give him partial weight as a possible de facto chief executive, which moves the forecast by well under one point.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W284",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The bosses of OpenAI and Anthropic say AI that beats top experts is months to a few years away, and Google DeepMind currently has no chief executive. Its former chief, now chair and outside the rules, also expects it within a few years. So a claim that such AI is over a decade away, or impossible with today's methods, is very unlikely. The forecast would change most if AI progress clearly stalled and these companies changed leaders.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0353
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W284",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The heads of OpenAI and Anthropic both say AI is advancing extremely fast and that systems beyond top experts are only a few years away. Google DeepMind currently has no chief executive after Demis Hassabis stepped aside. A public reversal, saying such AI is over a decade off or needs undiscovered methods, is very unlikely. A sharp, lasting stall in AI progress that forces these leaders to rethink would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}