{
  "question_id": "W192",
  "slug": "lab-annualised-revenue-300-billion",
  "title": "OpenAI or Anthropic reports $300 billion annualised revenue",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W192",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7741
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8328
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W192",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5662
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8105
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W192",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Qualifying channels are company-authored documents: Anthropic's post-IPO 10-Qs, 10-Ks, 8-K earnings releases and IR site, the S-1, and official posts on anthropic.com or openai.com. A reported run-rate of $300B or more as of a date after 2026-09-16, or quarterly revenue x4 of at least $300B, counts; press-reported run-rates do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.88
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.893
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W192",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both companies are growing extremely fast. Anthropic is reported near a $100 billion annual pace and OpenAI near $70 billion. Even so, $300 billion still needs roughly a threefold to fourfold rise, and Anthropic itself reportedly expects growth to slow. I see about a one-in-four chance of an official report by the end of 2027, rising to about four in five by 2031. Whether growth holds up through 2027 would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.813
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W192",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Anthropic's yearly revenue pace went from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $65 billion by July 2026, and the company expects to pass $100 billion by year-end. OpenAI is at about $50 billion. Reaching $300 billion means roughly tripling again. That most likely happens during 2028, and it would show up in Anthropic's quarterly reports after its planned November listing. The biggest swing factor is how much Anthropic's growth slows in 2027.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.85
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.866
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}