{
  "question_id": "W193",
  "slug": "lab-annual-revenue-1-trillion",
  "title": "OpenAI or Anthropic reports $1 trillion annual revenue",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W193",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000824
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.275392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.289884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.296986
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W193",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.120846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.271814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.278368
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W193",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Both companies' fiscal years are treated as calendar years (Anthropic's S-1 uses a Dec 31 year-end), so FY2026 through FY2030 can qualify. FY2026 (~$60–75B) cannot reach the threshold, and each year's results are assumed to be published in Q1 of the following year.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W193",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither company is close to $1 trillion yet. Anthropic will book roughly $60 billion this year and OpenAI about $40 billion, and only full-year results through 2030 can be published in time. Getting there means roughly doubling every year through 2030. Their current explosive growth makes that possible, but no company has ever done it. The biggest swing factor is whether Anthropic's revenue roughly triples in 2027, as investors expect.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W193",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 13%. Anthropic, the faster-growing lab, will book roughly $56 billion this year. To reach $1 trillion in 2030 it would have to roughly double every year for four years, about five times its own forecast, while computing power, price wars and customer cost-cutting push the other way. OpenAI projects only $350 billion for 2030. Anthropic's quarterly growth re-accelerating through 2027 would most raise this estimate.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}