{
  "question_id": "W61",
  "slug": "joint-government-lab-approval-body",
  "title": "A joint government–lab body gains power to block training or deployment",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W61",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.070037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.150774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.190221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.210465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.230203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.249448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.268212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.286507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.304344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.321736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.338692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.355225
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W61",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0822
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1763
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3735
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W61",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Authority is read strictly: voluntary or 'morally binding' accords, advisory committees, private-only SROs, and government-only approval powers do not qualify; Trump's floated ~10-person committee would count only if formally created with sitting federal officials and covered-developer members and given binding approve/suspend power over training or deployment, confirmed publicly by both sides.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W61",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No such joint body exists today. The White House favors voluntary company \"self-policing\" backed by its own one-sided tools, such as export controls, and the leading proposals (an industry-funded watchdog, a new Commerce Department regulator, licensed outside evaluators) keep government and companies in separate roles. I put the chance at about 9% by the end of 2031. A major disaster caused by an advanced model, pushing officials to co-manage a lab, would most raise it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W61",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The government now controls major AI releases informally, through export controls, a secret review framework and an all-government task force. The ideas with momentum are either industry self-regulation or a government regulator, and neither puts officials and company representatives on one body with binding power. I see about a 1% chance by end-2026, rising to about 11% by 2031. The development that would most change this is a formal committee of officials and lab executives with power to block releases.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}