{
  "question_id": "W248",
  "slug": "japanese-women-life-expectancy-90",
  "title": "Life expectancy for Japanese women reaches 90",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W248",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019603
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W248",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015173
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W248",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only MHLW national abridged life tables for observation years 2026-2030 (released late July 2027-2031) are eligible; the 2025 Complete Life Table (~Mar 2027) is excluded by the observation-period rule, and the female median lifespan (寿命中位数, already 90.17) is not the defined quantity.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W248",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Japanese women's life expectancy was 87.33 years in the latest official table, for 2025. Only the yearly tables for 2026 through 2030 count. Reaching 90 by then would need gains about four times faster than in any recent decade, more than eliminating every cancer death would add. Even the government's most optimistic projection reaches 90 only in 2034. What would change this is a sudden, unprecedented drop in deaths, such as from a sweeping medical breakthrough.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W248",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Japanese women's life expectancy is 87.33 years, according to the health ministry's July 2026 release. Reaching 90 by the last eligible report, in July 2031, would need gains about three times faster than the long-run average and larger than any five-year gain recorded since 1980. That means death rates at every age falling by over a quarter within five years. Only an unprecedented medical breakthrough that sharply cut deaths among older women by 2030 would change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}