{
  "question_id": "W158",
  "slug": "international-body-binds-us-and-china",
  "title": "An international body gains binding authority over US and Chinese AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W158",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An AI-specific, legally integral sectoral treaty annex can qualify when read with an existing binding decision procedure, but a voluntary code or direct treaty prohibition without delegated substantive deployment authority cannot.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109888
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W158",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I include narrow sectoral instruments and consensus-based bilateral commissions, but AI standards adopted under general treaty powers qualify only if legally integral treaty text expressly supplies AI coverage and substantive binding deployment authority.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039881
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047562
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.090576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108673
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W158",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A bilateral US-China executive agreement creating a joint commission whose (even consensus-based) decisions on AI deployment bind both governments without further ratification would qualify; general authorities without express AI text (SOLAS/IMO, ICAO, WTO, ITU, UNECE 1998 Agreement) and dialogues/incident channels do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W158",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This is very unlikely within five years. No such treaty exists or is being negotiated. The United States told the UN in September 2026 it \"totally rejects\" any global control of advanced AI. The new US–China talks cover only discussion and an incident hotline. Any binding treaty would take years to negotiate and ratify. The development that would most change this forecast is a serious AI crisis that pushes both governments to set up a joint body able to approve or block AI deployments.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W158",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 3% by the end of 2031. No treaty that both countries have joined gives any international body binding power over how AI is used. The US president openly rejects global AI control, and the September summit produced only a dialogue and an incident hotline. Most of the remaining chance comes after 2029. The development that would most change this forecast is the two governments formally opening negotiations on a binding AI treaty with a joint decision-making body.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}