{
  "question_id": "W146",
  "slug": "international-ai-inspection-body",
  "title": "An international body with power to inspect AI developers is created",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W146",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2782
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3741
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4573
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W146",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4995
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W146",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only bodies newly established on/after 2026-09-16 count; WAICO's entry into force would not qualify (its treaty has no express inspection/verification mandate) and subsidiary bodies created by non-UNGA organs (e.g., WAICO Council) are excluded; a consent-based technical-evaluation/verification mandate created by a treaty in force or a UNGA resolution qualifies.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W146",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No international body with power to inspect or check AI developers exists, and none is being formally set up. In September 2026, 31 leaders asked the UN to explore one, but the US rejects any global AI oversight, China is wary, and UN bodies and treaties take years. I put the chance at about 4% by end-2028 and 15% by end-2031. A UN Assembly decision to create such a body would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W146",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No international body with power to inspect or verify companies building artificial intelligence exists, and none is being negotiated. About thirty countries, the European Union and the United Nations chief have only called for exploring one, while the United States and China resist outside oversight. I put the chance near 3% by end-2027, rising to about 19% by end-2031. The forecast would move most if Washington or Beijing came to back such a body.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}