{
  "question_id": "W202",
  "slug": "hyperscaler-capex-5-trillion",
  "title": "Big-five tech capex exceeds $5 trillion in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W202",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006987
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121924
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W202",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00051199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00052199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00751833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00761758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03743719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03772596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03782218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03782218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12441819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12503109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12529358
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W202",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Threshold applies to a single calendar year's combined gross cash purchases/additions of P&E; only CY2026–CY2030 can be completed and reported (each in Q1 of the following year) before 2031-12-31.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W202",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at under 1%. The five companies are on track to spend about $0.8 trillion in 2026. Leading forecasts see roughly $1.2 to $1.4 trillion a year in 2027–2028, and even Nvidia's chief expects $3 to $4 trillion a year by 2030 from all buyers worldwide combined. Topping $5 trillion by 2030 would need about 60% growth every year with no slowdown. What would most change this is 2028 spending coming in well above $2 trillion.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W202",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "These five companies will spend about $0.8 trillion on capital projects in 2026, and analysts expect about $1.1 to $1.2 trillion in 2027. Passing $5 trillion would take roughly 60% growth every year through 2030. That is more than double the most bullish industry forecast for all AI spending worldwide. The only realistic chance is calendar 2030, reported in early 2031. Growth that stays above 60% in 2027 and 2028 would raise my estimate the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}